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9. Credit Spreads in Distant Expiration Months
What's a trader's single most difficult task? I believe it's forecasting market
direction. When should you go with the trend and when should you expect the market
to reverse course? Clearly, no one can correctly answer that question with any
consistency because markets are unpredictable by nature.
So the logical question to ask is if there's a way to trade that doesn't require
guessing if the market is going to rally or decline. Delta neutral volatility
trading is one way. Forecasting implied volatility is the focus of that approach.
There's also the technique of using statistical volatility when placing non-directional
trades. My book, Trading Options Visually, discusses using credit call and credit
put spreads (condors and butterfly positions) close to expiration date. This approach
focuses on the magnitude of market moves in the short term.
Here's an interesting variation for markets using options farther from expiration
date, and like the short term method, it's a mechanical way of trading with limited
risk and positive time decay. It's suitable for volatile markets where the underlying
futures contract is large in dollar value (i.e. S&P, US Bonds, and Japanese
Yen).
Credit spreads close to expiration perform best when the futures are nonvolatile.
By contrast, credit spreads farther from expiration in volatile markets allow
a trader to realize profits on the credit call spread component after the market
declines (or on the credit put spread after the market rallies). So a trader can
"play the swings" in the market. The more the market chops back and
forth, the better. Each time he closes a credit spread, he establishes a pair
of new credit spreads in anticipation of further action.
"Knowledge is power and all traders can benefit by continually
bolstering their knowledge base. I hope to contribute in that regard." Paul
Forchione
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